New blog @YarinHochman.com

Hello guys,

Its been About about 8 months since I've stopped updating & writing Boldinvestors, and It's been a wild ride.

I'm currently working on my new startup, which is still at It's very early stages, and I've recently stated a new personal blog @ Yarinhochman.com.

There you can read about recent developments and thoughts I share online.

Thanks for sticking with me and Boldinvestors, Hope you've enjoyed it.

Cheers,

YHO/ Yarin Hochman

RBC: Apple To Change iPhone Sales Model, Sell 14 Million Phones This Year

Apple's 10 million iPhones in 2008 goal? Too low, says RBC analyst Mark Abramsky in a note today. He thinks Apple (AAPL) will sell 14 million phones this year, up 40% from his previous prediction of 10 million -- and more than 8 times the 1.7 million phones the company sold in the first three months of the year. He also thinks Apple will sell 24 million iPhones in 2009.

Why? The most obvious helper: A new iPhone, which should be able to access faster, "3G" wireless Internet service. Also: Broader distribution through new carrier deals in Europe and Asia, broader consumer interest thanks to Apple's forthcoming apps platform, and broader corporate interest thanks to the "iPhone 2.0" upgrade, planned for June, which adds corporate email support, etc.

But Abramsky also thinks Apple is going to change the way it sells the iPhone by loosening its distribution strategy. Specifically, he thinks Apple could:

• Drop or reduce exclusivity in some markets. This would let people buy iPhones without being forced to use Apple's hand-picked carrier partner -- e.g. T-Mobile (DT) subscribers in the U.S. who don't want to switch to AT&T (T).
  
  
• Allow carriers to subsidize pricing, as rumored. For example, a $200 iPhone could sell 50-100% better, he says. AT&T would happily pay $200 to steal a subscriber from Verizon Wireless -- it's already doing it for every other phone it sells.
  
  
• Sell official "unlocked" phones that can work with any wireless carrier. This could help iPhone sales momentum jump 2-3x outside of North America, he says.
  

All of this points to Apple getting lower (or zero) kickbacks from wireless operators -- highly profitable service fees it gets now in exchange for carrier exclusivity/early adopter status. (RBC estimates $8 per subscriber, per month, on average.)

To make up for it, we expect unlocked iPhones to sell for a hefty premium -- Abramsky's guess of an additional $200 sounds right to us. But for the rest of the market, Apple will need to find new ways to boost or maintain its margins -- or settle for lower profitability in exchange for greater market share.

Either way, Abramsky says, the iPhone is "solidly accretive" to Apple's profits. He estimates an unlocked $400 iPhone still gets a 35% gross margin for Apple; last quarter, its overall gross margin was 32.9%.

(Silicone Alley Insider)

Microsoft says XP is dead in June, Dell says it ll' keep selling it

Steve Ballmer kicked up a little dirt last week when he said that Microsoft could "wake up smarter" and keep selling XP after the June 30 cutoff date if customer feedback demanded it, but as you'd expect, the company is busily trying to "clarify" that statement by saying that while it always listens to customers, XP is definitely going to die on the 30th. Well, apart from the ultraportable exception that'll last until 2012 or so. And the backlog of licenses still in reseller's hands. Oh, and a little company called Dell, which, as rumored, is going to take advantage of a Vista licensing loophole that allows it to sell a copy of Vista but preload XP instead. Yep, that's the plan -- Dell's going to report a Vista sale to Microsoft, but deliver an XP box with Vista upgrade DVD to customers. (That sound you just heard was a million accountants sighing in appreciation.) The program will be available for Latitude, OptiPlex, Precision, Vostro, and XPS systems (some with a minor fee), and Dell says it'll keep going as long as Microsoft supports the "downgrade" license option, which could be forever. Looks like June 30 just got a lot less scary for XP fans, no?

Read - Microsoft clarification of Ballmer's comments
Read - Dell to keep selling XP

(Engadget)

Apple Buys Chipmaker P.A. Semi For $278 Million

Wondering what Apple (AAPL) was going to do with all that cash? Here's one answer: The company has acquired small chip designer P.A. Semi for $278 million in cash, Forbes.com reports.

Late Tuesday, in response to questions from Forbes.com, Apple's top spokesman said the deal is done. "Apple buys smaller technology companies from time to time, and we generally do not comment on our purposes and plans," Steve Dowling said. The company is due to announce its quarterly earnings Wednesday.

The decision to center the iPhone design around a chip that Apple could own marks a significant strategic choice by Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs, and is aimed at ensuring Apple can continue to differentiate its flagship phone as a raft of competitors flood the market. According to a source affiliated with the chip company, Jobs and Senior Vice President Tony Fadell led the tiny group of executives who spearheaded the acquisition, which included negotiations that took place in Jobs' home.

Apple's choice is a blow for chip maker Intel (INTC), which has been trying to convince Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple to rely on Intel's chips--particularly its latest low-power line up, called Atom.

In February 2007, P.A. Semi debuted a 64-bit dual core microprocessor which the company asserted was 300% more efficient than any comparable chips. It consumes only 5 to 13 watts running at 2 gigahertz. Telecommunications, networking and wireless companies embraced P.A. Semi's work.

It will probably take more than a year before Apple products incorporate any of P.A.'s chips, Forbes.com says.

(Silicone Alley Insider)

Revenge of the desktop app

The cloud is taking over the world of applications, casting a shadow on the desktop. The browser rules. Operating systems are simply plumbing. The Web is the new OS.



Hello folks, Dan Farber has written an interesting article over at Cnet, about the new world of software which is largely RIA ( Rich Internet Application) and how is desktop apps are fitting into this crazy world of software when everything is browser based?

Why would any one even want a desktop application when everything just runs off the web browser?